December is favored to be the chilliest month on the Eastern Seaboard, with lower-than-normal temperatures expected from the Great Lakes down into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The start of this period is expected to be characterised by winds from the north bringing cold conditions to most areas with widespread frost and ice. I am wondering if there is a possibility that the triple-dip La Nina event from 2020 could create some kinds of conditions that make atmospheric rivers more active, resulting in the occurrence of torrential rains over the western United States. Starting with the seasonal average, we see below-average snowfall over most of Europe, which is indicative of a high-pressure dominant pattern. The Met Office explains: To get cold air across the UK we need winds from the north or east. Confidence remains very low during this period. Difference in DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) between the wettest 20% and driest 20% of Southwestern U.S. La Nia outcomes simulated by the GFDL SPEAR climate model. This winter it seems the temps were fairly uniform across the equator. There appears to be a warming trend in our Octobers over the recent years, with many of them bringing milder than average spells.. More snowfall is still forecast in the upper Midwest, with some hints of more snowfall around the central Great Lakes. Everything you need to know about the forecast, and making the most of the weather. In the Southeast, the Farmers Almanacs expected East Coast storms are more likely to bring rain, although chilly conditions that enter the region in January could cause wintry precipitation there, as well. Winter 2022-23 Preliminary Forecast - Weatherbell.com The Farmer's Almanac Winter 2022-2023 Forecast Is Here Perhaps more relevant for this discussion, the teleconnections forced by the MJO also can interfere with those of ENSO. Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle. This model has been quite consistent with low snow accumulation since the early September runs. ENSO phases significantly influence tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. Minimum temperature 2C. Turning wet and windy from the west on Monday. Is that a small effect, or does La Nia strength need to be controlled for? The UK is set to be hotter than Greece over the weekend as the countrycontinues to experience unusually warm temperatures this October. Feeling cold. below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, signal relative to the noise of random weather variability, Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano, https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico. Ultra long range detailed weather forecast for South England. This precipitation will either be rain or snow, depending on just how cold the air is, and where the freezing level is. Winter Forecast 2021 - 2022 #3 - YouTube 10 day. From February to April, above-normal temperatures are projected to continue along the East Coast, in the Southeast and into the Southwest, with the greatest chance of warmer weather along the. Precipitation was slightly lower than normal. From the second half of next week onwards, milder conditions seem likely to push erratically north, with spells of rain and snow likely at times - which could be disruptive in places, at least at first. The Majority of these Atmospheric Rivers have missed this area and only the last month has some of the area received measurable Moisture. All good scientific studies note their limitations, and this analysis carries some caveats that are familiar to most climate scientists. Drought development is expected to occur across the South-central and Southeastern U.S., while drought conditions are expected to improve across the Northwestern U.S. over the coming months. This video and related map images can also be accessed online at www.climate.gov/winter2022-23. We see an equal-to-higher probability for more precipitation (and snowfall) over the northwest, extending into the Great Lakes and the eastern United States. This 2021-2022 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are . More snowfall is also seen over parts of the upper Midwest. Regarding whether the increased "waviness" is linked to Arctic amplification, we do not have a scientific consensus on such a link. The video covers both precipitation and temperature predictions, polar vortex, arctic blasts, typical snowfall, and regions that will see wamr and dry conditions for winter 2022 - 2023. The latest breakthroughs, research and news from the Met Office. This set consists of 30 simulations, and since there are 21 winter La Nia events between 1951-2020, I have 30 x 21 = 630 simulations of December-January La Nia conditionsa much larger sample size than if I just relied on the 21 observed La Nia winters. It relocates the jet stream downwards between the two strong pressure systems, marked above by the blue lines. We first have to take a quick look at the leading global weather driver for the upcoming winter season, La Nina. The next update will be available November 17. A La Nia pattern has persisted into the summer of 2022, and long-range models have been projecting a higher than average chance of a La Nia continuing into the winter of 2022-2023, before possibly weakening in the spring of 2023. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from the NOAA GFDL SPEAR climate model. We have also produced an image that shows the snowfall forecast change compared to the forecast from the previous month. Thank you for your comment, and I agree that the influence of the stratosphere on seasonal predictability and predictions is an important topic that deserves continued focus. Turning to Slide 5. AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. And we can expect plenty of it this winter, according to the Farmers' Almanac, which recently released its 2022-23 Extended Weather Forecast. In mid-January, the Farmers Almanac says, temperatures could drop as low as 40 degrees below zero in parts of the region. Between 2013 and 2022, we delivered an organic revenue CAGR of 11. . Fast, informative and written just for locals. ECMWF data provided is provided by the Copernicus-EU open project. These represent the range of variation when the only thing were taking into account is its a La Nia winter. Then, for each of those 21 years, I looked at the range of outcomes across the 30 simulations, thus including the chaotic, unpredictable weather variability. Rain for many on Saturday but becoming warm in south-east England. Rare 'Triple-Dip' La Nia Increasingly Possible - The Weather Channel The MJO certainly can interfere with ENSO, particularly during development of ENSO through the MJO influence on tropical westerly wind bursts. That tends to redirect the polar jet stream down over the northern United States, with the cold air following. Whether you are a fan of snow, here is the latest roundup of what meteorologists are saying about the weather in the coming months. Karen S. Haller. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:35, In reply to sampling differences by Nathaniel.Johnson. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). Drier conditions also develop in the southeastern United States as La Nina produces a weaker subtropical jet stream and less moisture over the southern United States. As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. Did La Nia drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23? This cold ocean phase is entering its final stage and will break down as we get into Spring. The jet stream is a large and powerful stream of air (wind) at around 8-11km (5-7mi) altitude. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 19:55, In reply to Atmospheric rivers by Jiwon Kim. Are you Weather-Ready for spring hazards? This figure indicates that SPEAR produces very wet early winter conditions in the Southwest for some of the La Nia simulations, with the largest differences between the wet and dry groups exceeding twice the 1991-2020 climatology (more than 200%). And, of course, it's too soon for any predictions of a White Christmas. How harsh will winter be? Six organizations issue forecasts. In the East, the almanac predicts above-average snowfall for a vast area, from North Carolina to central New England to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Great Plains. This connection has been hypothesized, but the evidence is mixed. This is not too far from the ECMWF prediction, but we generally see more snowfall in the northern United States. 2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread Light winds. Comments are placed in moderation and must be approved by a blogger before they are posted. Remaining very mild. U.S. Winter Outlook: Drier, warmer South, wetter North with return of More snow? Here's Michigan's winter 2022-2023 outlook Even the wettest December-January event before this year, 1955/56, was drier-than-average in February-March, demonstrating that a wet early winter doesnt necessarily mean a wet late winter. Last month was. Forecasts hint at abnormal UK winter: whats the long-range outlook? A weak onshore flow should keep it above 40 here. Updated 15 February 2023. The highest snowfall potential is usually in regions with colder temperatures and more precipitation. Above-normal precipitation is forecast in part of the Ohio Valley, an area that could pick up above-normal snowfall if temperatures remain low enough. Extended Winter Forecast for 2022-2023 - Farmers' Almanac A .gov Since the latest forecast data was released in mid-late November, we now also have the March data included, so we can look at some early Spring snowfall potential. This U.S. Winter Outlook 2021-2022 map for temperature shows warmer-than-average conditions across the South and most of the eastern U.S., while below average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Plains. This atmospheric river onslaught surprised many who were expecting a dry season, especially in the Southwest, not only because of the prolonged drought, but also because La Nia tends to bring drier-than-average winter conditions to the region. WeatherBell is forecasting slightly above-normal snowfall, 125 percent of the seasonal average, in the Midwest, through the Ohio Valley and into the interior Northeast. If youre struggling to identify any meaningful sea surface temperature differences in the map above, then you and I are in the same boat (5). A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10. One way we could try to address this question is to group both the wettest and driest La Nias over the Southwest in December-January and then see if there are notable differences in the sea surface temperature patterns that occurred during wetter La Nias versus drier La Nias. (NOAA Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data). La Nina is a climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean but impacts the global weather forecast. Distribution of DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) in the Southwest U.S. (region defined in the figure above) for all 21 La Nias from 1951-2020. After this, the December Full Moon will fall on December 19 and the Winter Solstice - marking the shortest day of the year - will occur on December 21. Cloudier on Wednesday with outbreaks of rain and possibly snow, alongside strengthening winds. The Farmers Almanac says temperatures in the Southeast and Northeast should become milder in February, though. Images by NOAA Physical Science Laboratory. Submitted by John N-G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 15:04. However, this pattern may break down during the last third of the month, possibly heralding a return to milder, more unsettled weather. Share. Not sure how much that was a factor. Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and minimize weather's impacts on lives and livelihoods. Summer Forecast 2022: Sizzling Summer Ahead - Farmers' Almanac - Plan This is the part of the atmosphere where the air temperature is at 0C. Winter Outlook 2022-23 Has Colder Risks For North, East There is an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for the winter season and an increased chance of below-normal precipitation. That storminess is not expected to slow in the eastern half of the country, with the almanac suggesting snowy conditions into the Northeast. How harsh will winter be? The data shows that the La Nina jet stream pattern also changes the snowfall patterns over North America as the pressure systems take a different path, along with the cold air. A common approach to overcome this limitation of not enough real cases is to use global climate models to create hypothetical ones. (NOAA) Ontario's 2022 Winter Weather Forecast Is Here & You're Gonna Need A Winter 2022 Will Bring Temperature Swings and Lots of Storms - Leisure and last updated 5:53 AM, Mar 01, 2023. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Sun, 02/26/2023 - 20:08, In reply to Thanks Nat for this cogent by Clara Deser. Dont miss the full Winter forecast with pressure and temperature patterns: Winter Forecast 2022/2023 November Update: Cold ENSO phase peaks, with its growing weather influence as we head for the start of the Winter Season, Snow Extent in the Northern Hemisphere now Among the Highest in 56 years Increases the Likelihood of Cold Early Winter Forecast both in North America and Europe, Weather: A significant double-blocking pattern will bring a cold Winter start in December, disrupting the circulation and unlocking the cold air.